Macro Research

President Biden First 100 Days!!!


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কেমন যেতে পারে ২০২১সালে Stock Market? বিনিয়োগকারীদের কথা মাথায় রেখে আমরা চেষ্টা করেছি খুব সংক্ষেপে সে সম্পর্কিত কিছু তথ্য আপনাদের সামনে তুলে ধরতে


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AT Capital Bangladesh Stock Market Outlook 2021 - January 14, 2021

  • BD capital market stages strong rebound.
  • We expect the rally to continue given ongoing excess liquidity conditions, low interest.....

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AT Capital Bangladesh Stock Market Outlook 2021

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AT Capital - 2021 Outlook - January 07, 2021

  • What an extraordinary week since we did our 2021 Outlook!
  • The week began with PM Boris Johnson announcing the 3rd UK lockdown that may........

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AT Capital - 2021 Outlook - COVID-19, Inequality and the Anger of the Left Behind

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AT Capital - Monetary Policy Statement-FY2020-21 Review - July 30, 2020

  • BB believes a V-shape recovery from the COVID-19 scenario and expects a real GDP growth of 8.2% for FY21 aligned with the government set target.
  • Inflation projections have been retained at level of 5.04%-5.93%.........

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AT Capital - Monetary Policy Statement-FY2020-21 Review



AT Capital Digital Transformation in Bangladesh’s Capital Markets - July 12, 2020

  • While technology continues to transform capital markets globally, Bangla-desh has so far largely been left behind.
  • The COVID crisis may act as a catalyst for change. The DSE and CSE were the only equity markets in the world to remain closed........

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AT Capital Digital Transformation in Bangladesh’s Capital Markets July 12, 2020

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AT Capital Bangladesh Banking Sector Report - July 08, 2020

  • Banks in Bangladesh were already struggling with a challenging environment Pre-Covid. The pandemic is worsening the impact of recent policy measures creating an Ill-timed double whammy from lending/deposit rate cap and legacy high NPLs.
  • Not being able to price loans effectively due to lending cap will essentially force commercial banks to limit loans to the segments of economy – small........

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AT Capital Bangladesh Banking Sector Report - July 08, 2020

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China-Driven Geopolitical Risks Will Escalate –Stay Short India Risk - June 22, 2020

  • The current China-India border crisis is consistent with China’s plan to capitalize on Covid to establish itself as Asia’s dominant hegemon at the.........

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China-Driven Geopolitical Risks Will Escalate –Stay Short India Risk



Covid-19 is Accelerating The Thucydides Trap in US-China Relations - June 17, 2020

  • US-China tensions, which are the worst since the 1989 Tiannemen Square crisis, have re-emerged as a major theme for global markets joining the debate on the shape.........

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Covid-19 is Accelerating The Thucydides Trap in US-China Relations



AT Capital FY20-21 Budget Summary - June 11, 2020

  • With so much of the budget leaked ahead of time, the actual release on Budget day itself is often a major anti-climax. We provide a summary of some of the highlights in this document, But our overall sense is that this is a cautious rather than a bold budget.
  • Growth expectations for FY 20/21 are over-optimistic. Likewise with revenue projections and hence the budget deficit/GDP is likely to exceed 8% versus.........

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AT Capital FY20-21 Budget Summary - June 11, 2020



ATC Macro Update: June 09, 2020 - Bangladesh Budget and Growth Outlook

  • Bangladesh eased its lockdown measures on May 29, and moved to a zone based lockdowns on June 7. New cases and infections are still rising, there remains a great deal of uncertainty of the Covid trajectory in Bangladesh.
  • The World Bank revised Bangladesh’s growth forecast downward to 1.6% for FY19-20, as the recovery in industrial production is reversed..........

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ATC Macro Update: Jun 09, 2020

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ATC Macro Update: May 12, 2020

  • Global Economic Data Remains bleak with record 20.5 mn fall in AprilUS Non-Farm Payrolls and Bank of England forecasting worst UK recession in 2020for 300 years.
  • Despite this US and European stock markets remain resilient thoughwe are sceptical this will last and see risks of new cyclical lows..........

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ATC Macro Update: May 12, 2020

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ATC Macro Update: April 28, 2020 - Unsustainable divergence between US Stocks and the Economy

  • On global macro, we analyze the divergence between resilient US equities and the economic meltdown. In part it is explained by a massive bifurcation between tech winners and retail/travel/energy.
  • Massive central bank liquidity injections (USD 5 trillion for the G7) and low bond yields play a part. But we believe .........

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ATC Macro Update: April 28, 2020 - Unsustainable divergence between US Stocks and the Economy

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ATC Macro Update: April 21, 2020

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) which on Monday Apr 20 reached a historic low of around -USD 40 for May delivery – some of the move is technical but the underlying slump in demand is real.
  • With a number of European countries and some US States implementing gradual exit strategies, a key question is how quickly .........

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ATC Macro Update: April 21, 2020

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ATC Macro Update: April 14, 2020

  • World Bank slashes growth forecasts for BD to 2-3% for FY 2020 and 1.5-2.9% for FY 20/21. We don’t think that they are bearish enough.
  • The risk of a global depression along the lines of the 1930s are growing. Added to Coronavirus exit strategy uncertainties, we believe that .........

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ATC Macro Update: April 14, 2020

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Bangladesh Coronavirus Update: April 06, 2020

  • The Coronavirus pandemic and accompanying lockdowns in key export markets and have created the "Perfect Storm" for the Bangladesh economy.
  • Our central forecast is for GDP growth for 2020 to slow to 2% from more than 8% in 2019. Exports are likely to fall by 25 % (USD 10 bn or 3% of GDP), remittances USD 5 bn (or 1.5% of GDP) and domestic .........

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Bangladesh Coronavirus Update: Unprecedented Macro Challenges Require Unconventional Policy Measures

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 To  
Date Title Summary Full Report
14 January 2021 AT Bangladesh Capital Market O Open
07 January 2021 ATC Update 2021 Outllook – C Open
31 July 2020 AT Capital Digital Capital Mar Open
30 July 2020 Monetary Policy FY2020-21 Open
12 July 2020 AT Capital Digital Transformat Open
08 July 2020 AT Capital Bangladesh Banking Open
22 June 2020 China-Driven Geopolitical Risk Open
17 June 2020 Covid-19 is Accelerating The T Open
12 June 2020 AT Capital FY20-21 Budget Summ Open
09 June 2020 AT Capital Macro Update - Jun Open
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